Your prediction for who is murdering the people on the island could branch off into several different directions.

Your question seems to presume that since the island does not provide a decent hiding spot, the killer might be hiding in plain sight. That is to say, the killer might be one of the guests. The guest happens to excel at subtly murdering people.

In that case, you might predict that the killer is Phillip Lombard. Remember, Lombard used to be a soldier, and he has a history of ruthless behavior. He let several Africans die to save his own life. The gun that Lombard has in chapter eight seems to provide additional evidence for a prediction centered on him.

Another feasible option could be General John Macarthur. When William Blore and Lombard encounter the General in this chapter, the interaction doesn’t present Macarthur in a favorable light. The General tells the two, “You don’t understand—you don’t understand at all. Please go away.”

Perhaps the General means to say that the two can’t fathom why Macarthur is killing them. Perhaps he wants them to leave him alone because he has to focus on how he’ll murder next.

Although, as you might recall, Macarthur is getting up there in age. Considering his senior status, you might not want to predict that Macarthur is causing the deaths.

Another prediction might contest the idea that there is no place to hide. Perhaps there is a place to hide, and the guests just haven’t found it.

When I first read the book, I thought the ten little boys might have something to do with the murders. Perhaps these boys somehow existed outside of the nursery rhyme. Considering the racial dynamics of the story, perhaps you can make a prediction that takes racism and/or colonialism into account.