The central idea of A Study of History is that civilizations arise, develop, falter, and eventually fall apart following a consistent and recurring pattern. Toynbee posited that the universe is not random but governed by laws, which must also be evident in the course of human history.

Though A Study of History is an extensive work, the fundamental framework of these historical laws is relatively straightforward. A primitive society transforms into a civilization by effectively tackling challenges from either the physical world or human interactions. This cycle of challenge and response repeats continuously, as each resolved challenge leads to another, requiring a new creative response, and so forth. Drawing from Chinese philosophy, Toynbee describes this as a shift from Yin (rest) to Yang (action), asserting it as one of the universe's essential rhythms.

Creative individuals and groups drive societal progress. They follow a principle Toynbee calls withdrawal-and-return. These individuals or groups retreat from society, either literally or metaphorically, to cultivate knowledge, wisdom, or power, and then reintegrate, sharing their achievements with everyone. The majority then emulates this creative minority through a process known as mimesis, or imitation, which propels the civilization forward. Toynbee highlights that the withdrawal-and-return principle is evident not only in human activities but also in the seasonal cycles of agricultural crops. He also observes that this principle applies to spiritual growth, notably in the Christian belief of resurrection. Toynbee frequently uses analogies from nature and non-political human endeavors to underscore his argument about recurring patterns and laws.

The decline of a civilization also adheres to predictable laws. It happens when the creative minority can no longer effectively address challenges. The "internal proletariat" loses motivation to follow them, and the "external proletariat" (groups outside the civilization's formal boundaries but influenced by its developments) becomes antagonistic. This leads to social unrest and conflicts, a phase Toynbee terms the Time of Troubles. From this turmoil emerges a conqueror who enforces peace through a universal state, attempting to halt the decline. Toynbee cites the Roman Empire as an example of a universal state, arising from the disintegration of Hellenic civilization. However, this universal state cannot permanently stop the decline or prevent the eventual collapse of the civilization.

Wherever Toynbee directs his attention, he observes patterns, laws, rhythms, and cycles, not just in the grand narratives of civilizations rising and falling, but also in finer details. For instance, when examining the past four centuries of modern Western history, he identifies a recurring sequence of four cycles, which he organizes into a table in chapter 11. The sequence begins with an "overture," where minor conflicts act as a precursor to larger events. This is followed by a "general war," then a "breathing space" of relative peace, succeeded by a "supplementary war" (referred to as the Epilogue), and finally culminates in a "general peace." Toynbee suggests that similar cycles are evident in both Hellenic and Sinic civilizations.

Toynbee recognized that by proposing historical laws, he was challenging the prevailing trends in modern historical scholarship. He observed that many contemporary historians dismissed the notion that history could be understood through a systematic pattern governed by identifiable laws. He referenced an unnamed English novelist who tried to convey the idea that history was just a sequence of random events by creating the term "Odtaa," which stands for "one damn thing after another." However, Toynbee held a different view.

If Toynbee’s framework were accepted, it would render human history comprehensible in its entirety. The presence of recurring patterns would also empower historians to predict future trends in human history, a task Toynbee himself cautiously undertakes in chapter...