Chance significantly influences the misfortune of the marooned travelers. Many incidents in the narrative depend on unpredictable events. For example, if the outcasts had not paused for the night or had commenced their journey a day earlier, they might have bypassed the snowstorm and reached Sandy Bar. Likewise, if Tom and Piney had continued their trip instead of staying with the outcasts, they might have avoided the storm. On the other hand, one might argue that if Oakhurst had dispatched Tom for assistance sooner or had strived to maintain the fire instead of taking his own life, most of the group might have survived.

Harte utilizes Oakhurst's character to delve into the theme of destiny. As someone who is "too much of a gambler not to accept fate," Oakhurst conveys that with luck, "all you know for certain is that it's bound to change." Once the group is stranded, Oakhurst's gambling mindset presents a challenge. Having encountered "a streak of bad luck" since departing Poker Flat, his experiences suggest that this misfortune should eventually end. However, a gambler also has the option to leave the game if the odds are unfavorable, and Oakhurst evaluates their survival chances as one in a hundred. His suicide note, mentioning that he "struck a streak of bad luck" and "handed in his checks," reflects his inability to resist despair when faced with seemingly insurmountable odds.