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According to Juan Gonzalez in Harvest of Empire, why will the Latino population likely grow in the 21st century?
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Juan Gonzalez in Harvest of Empire identifies several reasons for the expected growth of the Latino population in the 21st century. Key factors include continued immigration driven by economic crises in Latin America and the proximity of the U.S., as well as the attraction of the U.S. economy needing workers. Additionally, the Latino population has higher fertility rates, contributing to natural growth. These elements suggest a sustained increase in the Latino demographic in the U.S.
The Hispanic population comprises the largest non-white minority in the United States. Although the Asian population has been growing slightly faster over the past two years, that is from a lower base. The Hispanic population is predicted to be the largest contributor to overall United States population growth over the next decade. There are two main ways in which the Hispanic population will continue to grow as a proportion of the entire population of the United States.
Immigration is a major contributing factor to the growth in the Hispanic population. Although economic development in Mexico and President Trump's xenophobic policies have led to a temporary decline in immigration, the two main factors motivating immigration are unchanged. First, people living in countries (especially in Central America) plagued by violence, dictatorship, gender oppression (especially of women and gay people), and high crime rates will continue to risk their lives to flee to...
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a place where there is an established rule of law. Second, the United States is a prosperous country (a "land of opportunity") in close geographical proximity to poorer countries. The existence of a substantial Hispanic population in place in the United States means that despite some hostility from a limited group of racists, many Hispanics can join welcoming communities, often of relatives and friends of relatives.
The next major contributor to the growth of the Hispanic population is birth rate. Hispanics are younger on the average and have higher fertility rates (average number of births per woman) than other demographic groups, leading to an increase in their relative population percentage.
References
The answer to this question can be found in the last pages of Chapter 11 of Harvest of Empire. I do not know the page numbers because I only have this in Kindle form, but the discussion of this topic is the last thing in Chapter 11. In these pages, Gonzalez lists the three major factors and discusses each at length.
The first factor that Gonzalez discusses is what he calls “the catastrophic economic crisis in Latin America.” Immigration typically happens in part because immigrants are “pushed” out of their home countries by some sort of negative factor. In Latin America, that negative factor is a weak economy. Gonzalez says that Latin American economies will remain very weak and that people will therefore be motivated to leave their countries and try to come to the US.
Gonzalez’s second factor has two parts. First, he notes that Latin America is much closer to the United States than Europe is. Because of the relative proximity, it will continue to be fairly easy for immigrants from Latin America to reach the US. Second, Gonzalez argues that Latino immigrants are more suited to come to America than the old European immigrants were. He says that Latino immigrants are more likely to have been city dwellers, are more highly educated, and have been exposed to much more of American culture before coming here. For these reasons, they are more likely to be able to cope with living in American cities and will not feel the need to return to their home countries as much as European immigrants did.
Finally, Gonzalez says that Latino immigrants will keep coming because the American economy needs them. (He actually lists four reasons, but the last two can be combined in this paragraph.) Gonzalez says that immigration is really driven by the needs of the US’s capitalist economy. As the white population ages, the US economy will need more workers to replace the retiring white workers. Because of this need, it will continue to attract or even recruit more workers from Latin America.
For these reasons, Gonzalez predicts that immigration will continue and the Latino population of the US will continue to rise.