Jared Diamond's thesis in Guns, Germs, and Steel argues that European dominance arose from geographical luck, not racial or cultural superiority. He attributes European power to the early development of agriculture, which allowed large, dense populations, technological innovation, and military strength. This advantage stemmed from Europe's geography, which supported domesticable plants and animals and facilitated the spread of innovations. Thus, Diamond contends Europeans were simply fortunate in their environmental circumstances.

Jared Diamond's theory of geographic luck as outlined in Guns, Germs, and Steel states that some regions leaped forward in progress because of access to easily domesticated grains and animals as well as lack of geographic barriers. The lack of barriers allowed innovations to spread more rapidly.

In Chapter 5 of "Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies", Jared Diamond notes that the New Guinean island of Bougainville is of the same size as the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i. However, Kaua'i supports a population of 60 000 to 80 000 people while Bougainville has only 15 000. He asks why this is so and concludes that it is because Kaua'i was settled fifty to sixty thousand years ago and had interacted with Eurasia by 3000 BC whereas Bougainville was not settled until about 3500 BC and its interaction with Eurasia did not begin for another 5000 years.

According to Guns, Germs, and Steel, Aboriginal Australians did not develop metal tools, writing, and complex societies primarily due to their inability to develop agriculture. Australia's geography and harsh climate hindered agricultural development, resulting in small, dispersed populations focused on survival. Without agriculture, they lacked the sedentary lifestyle needed for technological and societal advancements.

Jared Diamond argues that the "winners" in history were those who lived in areas with many domesticable plants and animals, allowing them to develop agriculture early. This geographic luck enabled these societies to create advanced civilizations sooner than others. The "losers" were those lacking such resources, delaying their agricultural and civilizational progress. Thus, the development and spread of agriculture were crucial factors separating historical "winners" from "losers."

The geographic determinism camp argues that a nation's location on earth, its access to oceans, raw materials, certain climates, and physical barriers, impacts how it is able to develop. The Western world has more "cargo" than other parts of the world because of its location.

Jared Diamond finds Madagascar's human geography astonishing because, despite being near Africa, its population is a mix of blacks and Southeast Asians who speak an Austronesian language from Borneo. This contrasts with the African mainland's linguistic and ethnic patterns. Diamond considers this anomaly akin to finding Scandinavians in the New World instead of Native Americans, highlighting the island's unique historical and cultural connections across the Indian Ocean.

According to Jared Diamond, the three major elements that separate the world's "haves" from "have-nots" are geographic luck, access to domesticable plants and animals, and the diffusion of agriculture. These factors allowed certain societies to develop complex structures, technology, and political organization, leading to economic and military advantages over less fortunate societies.

The Fertile Crescent was the earliest site of human food production due to its Mediterranean climate, fertile soil, and abundance of domesticable plants. However, it lost these advantages through ecological degradation caused by deforestation and excessive irrigation, leading to soil erosion and salinization. Although Assyria's evolution is not discussed in Guns, Germs, and Steel, its development and decline highlight the impact of environmental and political factors on civilizations.

The Maori's defeat of the Moriori in Guns, Germs, and Steel supports Diamond's argument that environmental factors shape societal development. The Maori, who lived in fertile New Zealand, developed advanced technology and military skills, while the Moriori, isolated on the Chatham Islands, remained hunter-gatherers. This contrast illustrates how geography and resources influence the fate of civilizations.