In "Historical Inevitability," the second essay in Four Essays on Liberty, Berlin delves into the notion of human freedom from the perspective of historical determinism. As a biographer of Karl Marx, Berlin was acutely aware of the allure some philosophers and historians found in the idea of discernible patterns within the vast sweep of historical events. These intellectuals claimed to have unearthed the laws governing history, a discovery that led them to assert the presence of historical inevitability.

Central to this belief, particularly among Marxists, was the conviction that capitalism, riddled with internal contradictions, would, at a critical juncture, collapse under its own weight. This collapse would spur the proletariat into action, dismantling the old order and ushering in a utopian socialist state where the state apparatus itself would eventually cease to exist. Although various scholars and factions have proposed different visions of historical inevitability, they all share the fundamental belief that history is propelled by immutable laws.

Berlin, however, challenges this perspective, framing it not as an empirical theory grounded in observable evidence but as a metaphysical stance. He argues that historical inevitability is more adept at rationalizing past events than forecasting future occurrences. Furthermore, he observes that most individuals do not subscribe to this deterministic view. Instead, they live their lives as if they possess the autonomy to make choices unbound by abstract historical laws. Berlin finds solace in this widespread belief in human agency, positing that determinism offers a convenient excuse for those unwilling to accept human responsibility. He asserts that acknowledging our capacity for decision-making is crucial in confronting the complexities of life and in fostering genuine freedom.