Donald Trump's Presidency

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Who will win the presidential election and why?

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With almost no exceptions, the winner of a presidential election in the United States of America has been won by the nominee of a major political party. While no one can predict the future, it seems a safe bet to assume that either the nominee of the Democratic or the Republican Party will win the general presidential election this fall. With this assumption in mind, let’s look at who the potential nominees are in both parties.

In the Republican primary, four candidates are still in the race— John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. The Republican nominee will be chosen at the Republican National Convention this summer in Ohio. Each state sends a certain number of delegates who, in the first round of voting, are committed to supporting a particular candidate. In the Republican race, if a candidate can accumulate 1,237 pledged delates from the states before the convention, he or she is guaranteed the nomination. At the present moment, Donald Trump leads with 338 delegates, Ted Cruz has 236, Rubio follows with 112, and John Kasich trails with 27.

In the Democratic primary, the race has narrowed to two candidates— Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The Democratic process is similar to the republican process, with the exception that the Democratic Party has substantially more super delegates, or party officials who are not pledged to follow the will of the voters, and can vote at the convention for any candidate that they choose. At the present moment, Clinton leads with 607 pledged delegates, while Sanders trails with 412. Clinton has also claimed the verbal support of the vast majority of super delegates, though if Sanders can win the popular vote and the majority of pledged delegates, it is likely that super delegates may switch their allegiance to the winner of the popular vote. The Democratic nominee will need 2,383 delegates, including both super delegates and pledged delegates,to secure the nomination.

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By this question, I assume you are asking about the process of determining who will win the 2016 presidential election and why.

Each candidate will go through the primary process in his or her party. The candidate that emerges from his/her caucus/primary process with the majority of that party’s delegates will represent that party in the general election.

In the general election, each candidate will try to win as many states as possible. Each state carries with it a certain number of electoral votes. Candidates will focus on winning states with a large number of electoral votes as well as focusing on certain swing states. Swing states are states that could go either for the Republicans or for the Democrats. The winner of the election will be the candidate that gets at least 270 electoral votes.

If you are asking which person will win the election, I will explain who may emerge from the primary process and what that person will need to do in the general election. This is not an endorsement of any individual or any party.

For the Democrats, either Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders will be the candidate. Some key questions for Bernie Sanders are if he has enough support from people of color and if he has more than one major issue on which to base his campaign. For Hillary Clinton, she needs to convince voters she is not tied to Wall Street and can represent the interests of the average person. She also needs to appeal to younger voters. My guess is that Hillary Clinton will get the nomination for the Democrats.

For the Republicans, the candidate will most likely be either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. For Donald Trump, he will need to convince people that he can act presidential. Putting other people or down or insulting them wouldn’t work well if he was president. Ted Cruz needs to convince people that he is not too far to the right. If he is viewed as extreme, this could hurt him. It is hard to predict where Republican support will go once the field is narrowed, but I’m guessing it will be Donald Trump who gets the Republican nomination.

It is my belief the Democrats will win the election. Voter turnout will be key. It there is a big turnout of voters this will help the Democrats significantly. I also believe enough people will be frightened by the positions Ted Cruz will take on many issues. He may be viewed as too extreme. Some will be frightened by Donald Trump’s blunt responses. They will feel he won’t act presidential. Others will question whether the needs of the average person can be understood by either of these Republican candidates.

Please understand this is only a prediction. It is not saying that one candidate or party is better than another candidate or party. My answer is based on polls and comments from political analysts. The real result will be known on election night.

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