Employment and Unemployment

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What are probable changes to the unemployment rates in the United States?

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Although many economists attempt to predict unemployment rates, such forecasting is relatively inaccurate. In the very short term, it is likely that the stimulus from reconstruction after Hurricane Sandy will lead to a moderate reduction in unemployment. The structural unemployment due to globalization, increased productivity, and the shift from a manufacturing to a service eco9nomy is unlikely to change. The main question remaining is political. If the Republican Congress continues to block President Obama's attempts to reduce unemployment by increasing taxes on the very rich and creating jobs making long term improvements in infrastructure, unemployment will remain high. If Congress can move beyond partisan bickering, and concentrate on stimulus and infrastructure (and abandon the Republican ideologues insistence on tax breaks for the wealthy), unemployment should decrease modestly.

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