Is it true that public opinion polling has historically been very good at predicting who will win a presidential election, even months before the actual election?

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pohnpei397 eNotes educator| Certified Educator

This is a hard question to answer because it uses two words or phrases that are not easily defined.   First, it uses “very good” as its standard for polling.  Second, it asks about polls that are conducted “even months” before elections.  So what does this mean?   How good do the polls have to be to be “very good?”  How many months constitute “even months?”  Because this is such a vague question, I would strongly suggest that you consult your textbook and/or class notes.  Those materials probably include specific language that is supposed to allow you to answer this question.

I would say that you are probably correct to say that this is true.   If you look at the polls in the link below, you can see that they are generally pretty accurate in predicting who will win even when the polls are conducted a few months before the election.  However, it is  still a  very good idea for you to check your own class materials so you can try to be sure to get the answer your instructor expects.