It is possible for a sect to grow into a church but it is improbable for a church to form into a sect based on the church-sect cycle.
A church experiences low tension within its environment while a sect is based on high tension within its environment. Therefore it is only as the sect continues establishing itself that it would move from a high tension state into a low tension state characteristic of a church. However it is highly likely that a new sect will emerge from the newly formed church that grew from a sect. This is because some of the members will reject the shift to a low tension state.
A sect is also noted as a breakaway faction of the church and this mostly occurs due to irreconcilable differences with the parent church. This is also the same reason why it is improbable for a church to become a sect because the parent church can’t break away from itself and thus, will maintain its status as a church in spite of shifts or changes in its underlying principles and philosophies. Thus, its main focus will be to communicate the changes to its members and maintain the church status.
However, it is important to note that when the parent church continues to disintegrate into sects, the parent church loses its influence and will likely turn into a sect. Sustained disintegration thus poses a risk to the church status.