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When you say "political structure societies," I assume that you are talking about what Diamond calls (in Chapter 14) chiefdoms or states. Diamond states that only societies that have agriculture can advance to either of these two stages. However, not all agricultural societies make it. Diamond says that there are two ways that small agricultural societies can become bigger.
First, they can merge because they have to merge in order to keep from being conquered. This would be, for example, a case in which two smaller societies merged so that they would be able to fight against a larger neighbor. Second, a small society can simply be conquered by a larger one and become part of that larger society.
So, the societies that develop into "political structure" societies are the ones that are threatened from the outside and have to either join with other small societies or be conquered by the outside threat.
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