2012 Republican Nomination: Early favorites?It's still very early in the race, with a large field of contenders and a fairly eclectic mix of viewpoints and personalities, but who do you think is...
It's still very early in the race, with a large field of contenders and a fairly eclectic mix of viewpoints and personalities, but who do you think is the most likely Republican candidate to win the nomination and why?
If we're just talking about then GOP nomination, I can't wait to find out -- it's going to be so interesting to see how the whole Tea Party vs. "Mainstream" GOP dynamic plays out.
At this point, I see Bachmann as the most likely nominee if the Tea Party people dominate. I don't think that Cain or Palin really have as much of a chance as Bachmann does. If it goes to the "mainstream" candidate, I'm thinking it will be Romney. Pawlenty is off to a really rocky start and I think that Huntsman is essentially Romney except with more moderate positions and the baggage of having worked with Obama.
So, it comes down to Romney vs. Bachmann in my opinion and I'm very curious to see how that will play out.
Of course, if people in my neck of the woods get their way, it will be Ron Paul. He was the only person who inspired anyone to put up signs here in my part of Central WA -- was it the same down there in Yakima?
It's easy to say Romney because of his financial resources and his traditional GOP ties, but when it comes to the actual nomination, I think that Republican voters will look elsewhere than to Romney. Bachmann seems to have joined the race because she's really running to be someone's VP pick. Herman Cain is getting a lot of attention in the South (where he's based) and might be able to surprise pundits because of his non-political background in an anti-politician era. An interesting ticket would be to see Cain and Jindal from Louisiana. I think that right now some possible GOP candidates haven't declared because they do not want to waste time and money that they do not have.
My guess is that Mitt Romney will get the nod. He has impressive credentials without some of the baggage of other candidates, and he has not yet shot himself in the foot as has Sarah Palin (Paul Revere warned the British) and Michelle Bachman who couldn't distinguish between John Wayne and John Wayne Gacy. There are other impressive candidates, such as Rick Perry but they don't have the name recognition of Romney. My guess is that entire Tea Party movement will soon implode. Sarah Palin is becoming increasingly an irrelevant nuisance rather than a serious candidate, and the extreme views of others of that ilk are just too wild for the serious voters to consider.
I think Texas Governor Rick Perry will throw his hat in the ring, and I think he has a pretty good chance, if he does, to win the nomination. He is a sharp communicator, and has created more than 200 thousand new jobs in Texas last year as the federal economy has stagnated. He also refuses to raise taxes to make ends meet, but instead proposes slashing spending.
All these ideas will play well to the Republican base, but he will also appeal to the independants and moderates, I think, because he comes across as down to earth and not radical right.
Plus he is a handsome man, which never hurts for a public figure.
I think Mitt Romney will be the one to outlast all this early energy. I simply don't think the so-called Tea Party momentum will continue. Only 35% of Republicans identify themselves as Tea Party supporters, and only 16% of Democrats or Independents. That doesn't really point to a landslide for any candidate catering to that wing of the party. Romney also polls the best against President Obama, which of course really means nothing at this point in the cycle....but it's still something to consider. I think it will prove a battle between Romney and Bachmann, but Romney will come out as the nominee.
With a big, bored sigh I have to say Mitt Romney. With excited anxiety I'll say Michele Bachmann and Chris Christie. However, I think that "favorites" is a pretty strong word here. Republicans are simply looking for someone who can beat Barack Obama. Most pundits are saying that this election will be a referendum on our current president and not have too much to do with the republican candidate himself/herself. Further, in my opinion, the whole thing will probably go back to one thing and one thing only: "It's the economy, stupid."
It may well be Mitt Romney, but I think Herman Cain has a chance. He's straight-talking, a good businessman with a proven record of being able to balance budgets as well as run a successful business, and as he said himself, "Mr. Obama can't play the race card with me." I find that Bachmann is falling victim to the media as Palin did last election which to the public says, "she can't think or speak straight." Although, that didn't keep Al Gore from being on a winning ticket...
I know it is not going to happen, but I would love Sarah Palin to stand just for the entertainment it would give us all. Am I alone in this?!!! Otherwise, I share the belief of other editors that it will probably be Mitt Romney. If he wins, I suppose the US will go down in history as having a President that is named after a baseball glove.
There sure are some TERRIBLE choices among the field, but Mitt Romney seems like both the front-runner and the best possible choice so far. It's amazing how many candidates there are, and no doubt others will still enter. It will really be interesting if Sarah Palin announces, giving the GOP two possible female candidates.