The Evolution of Progress

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The Evolution of Progress (Magill Book Reviews)

For the past several centuries, people have measured progress in large part in economic terms, monitoring steadily increasing levels of income and production. The author of THE EVOLUTION OF PROGRESS argues both that progress in those areas is unlikely to continue, at least at historical rates, and that different measures of progress will become more appropriate.

Paepke is a generalist, having acquired the knowledge on which this book is based from wide reading rather than formal study. He devotes the first section of this book, about two-thirds of the main text, to the past sources of material progress and the reasons why they are diminishing. His basic argument is for saturation and limits. People in the advanced countries have most of the material goods that they need, destroying the incentive to earn, save, and invest. In addition, there are limits to some of the processes, including the opening of new markets, that earlier brought progress. Speeding the processes of production and transportation brought great gains in the past, but there is little left to be gained. Less developed countries surely have the potential for material progress, but they receive little attention here. Paepke assumes that they will not innovate or invest on their own, so that the slowdown in progress in the advanced countries will affect them as well.

Progress in the future will take the form of human capabilities rather than material goods. The second of the two parts of THE EVOLUTION OF PROGRESS discusses what Paepke sees as the most promising areas of research and advance. These include genetics and genetic engineering, brain research and artificial intelligence, life extension, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Advances in these areas will not necessarily yield significantly more, better, or different material goods, at least in the short run, but they do hold promise for the quality of human life. Paepke posits that in much of the world, material desires have been sated, so that these advances are what will motivate the people of the near future.

THE EVOLUTION OF PROGRESS is almost two separate books. The first part draws heavily on standard economic analysis and statistics, making a strong case that the sources of material progress of the past are unlikely to continue into the future. The second part expounds on hard science and sociology, exploring the realms of the possible and the likely with little regard for economic issues. Paepke does, however, present a few links between the parts, thus clearly making his case for his vision of what the future of progress will bring.