Home > Encyclopedia of Drugs, Alcohol, and Addictive Behavior > High School Senior Survey

STUDY DESIGN

The core feature of the design is an annual survey of each new high school senior class, beginning with the class of 1975. Each year approximately 16,000 seniors are surveyed in approximately 135 public and private high schools that have been scientifically elected to provide an accurate, representative cross section of high school seniors throughout the coterminous United States. Data are collected following standardized procedures via closed-ended questionnaires administered in classrooms by University of Michigan representatives and their assistants.

In 1991, the project was expanded to include nationally representative samples of students from the eighth and tenth grades as well as from the twelfth grade. Approximately 18,000 eighth graders and 16,000 tenth graders are surveyed annually, using procedures similar to those used in the twelfth grade surveys.

One limitation of the design is that it does not include in the target population the young men and women who drop out of high school before graduation, and who make up between 15 and 20 percent of each age group nationally, according to U.S. Census statistics. The omission of high school dropouts does introduce biases in the estimation of certain characteristics of the entire age group, but, because the dropouts are a relatively small proportion of the entire group, the bias due to their omission is small. Because relatively few adolescents drop out before the end of tenth grade, the bias is particularly small for the eighth and tenth graders. It should also be noted that because any bias resulting from exclusion of the dropouts usually remains constant from year to year, their exclusion should introduce little or no bias in estimates of change or trends.

An issue that is relevant to the study of sensitive behaviors, such as drug use, is the extent to which respondents will answer honestly. Considerable inferential evidence suggests that the procedures used in this study produce largely valid data. This evidence includes the following points: Large proportions of respondents report using illegal substances; various drugs exhibit trends in different ways over time; there are very few missing data in response to questions on drug use, even though respondents are instructed not to answer questions they would prefer not to answer; the high correlations with other behaviors such as grades, delinquency, religious attitudes, and truancy indicate a high degree of construct validity; a high degree of consistency can be noted over time in individuals' reports (that is, the responses are reliable); and other factors that are discussed in detail in other publications (see Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman, 2000; O'Malley, Bachman, & Johnston, 1983).

MAJOR FINDINGS

One dramatic finding that emerged from the Monitoring the Future surveys was the decrease between about 1980 and 1992 in young Americans involved in the use of illicit drugs.

Illicit Drugs.

Annual use of any illicit drug (that is, any use in the past twelve months) peaked among high school seniors in 1979, when more than half (54%) of all high school seniors reported having used such a drug. This peak occurred following a rise in the late 1970s—from 45 percent in 1975, when the first reliable national data were collected. By 1992, the proportion had fallen to 27 percent, half of the peak rate.

The statistics for lifetime prevalence are also dramatic. In the peak year of 1981, 66 percent of the graduating class reported having used an illicit drug at some point in their lifetime. By 1992, that percentage was down by about one third, to 41 percent.

Unfortunately, a second dramatic finding that has emerged from the Monitoring the Future surveys is an increase in the numbers of young Americans involved in the use of illicit drugs during the 1990s. After reaching a low of 27 percent in 1992, annual use among seniors was back up to 42 percent in 1999. Lifetime use was back to 55 percent.

Increases were particularly sharp among the eighth and tenth graders. No data are available before 1991, so longer term trends are not so clear. However, it is clear that there were significant increases in the 1990s. Among eighth graders in 1991, 11 percent had used an illicit drug in the past twelve months; that figure increased to 21 percent by 1999 (and actually peaked in 1996 at 24%). Similarly, among tenth graders, annual use increased from 21 percent in 1991 to 36 percent (and peaked at 39% in 1997).

Among the various illicit drugs, marijuana is the most prevalent. The use of marijuana, as indicated by its annual prevalence, peaked among high school seniors in 1979, when a majority (51%) reported that they had used it in the past twelve months, and it steadily declined after that, reaching a low of 22 percent in 1992. The annual prevalence, thus cut by more than half, declined from one in two seniors in the class of 1979 to less than one in four seniors in the class of 1992. However, by 1999 the figure was back to 38 percent, so that well over one in three seniors had used marijuana in the past twelve months.

A particularly striking trend in marijuana use occurred between 1975 and 1978, when the proportion of seniors who reported using marijuana on a daily or near-daily basis in the past thirty days increased from 6 percent to an unprecedented 10.7 percent. This figure subsequently came down by more than 80 percent and stood at 2 percent in 1992; by 1999 it was back to 6 percent, exactly where it was in 1975.

Among eighth graders, annual marijuana use increased from 6.2 percent in 1991 to 17 percent in 1999 (peaking at 18% in 1996). Among tenth graders, annual marijuana use almost doubled between 1991 and 1999, from 17 percent to 32 percent (peaking at 35% in 1997).

Never as common as marijuana, cocaine became the drug on which the most attention was focused during the mid-1980s, when the national concern about the drug epidemic was at its highest level. The concern with cocaine was well founded because its use, unlike that of marijuana, had not begun to decline in the very early 1980s. As with marijuana, the daily use of cocaine had increased substantially between 1975 and 1979: Annual prevalence doubled from 5.6 percent to 12.0 percent. Several years followed during which there was little change, with annual prevalence reaching a peak of 13 percent in both 1985 and 1986. A period of decline then ensued during which annual use declined to 3.1 percent in 1992; this was the lowest value recorded since reliable data had begun to be collected in 1975. Like marijuana, however, use increased in the 1990s, and by 1999 annual cocaine among seniors had doubled, reaching 6.2 percent.

These data refer to the use of any form of cocaine, including crack cocaine. Crack cocaine first appeared in the early 1980s and became a significant factor among the illicit drugs in the mid-1980s. It was first assessed on a national basis in 1986, and its annual prevalence among high school seniors at that time was recorded at a disturbingly high 4.1 percent. That first reading turned out to be a peak level, and the use of crack cocaine declined thereafter, reaching 1.5 percent

(Percent who used in
	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985
Any Illicit Druga
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		-	-
12th Grade	45.0	48.1	51.1	53.8	54.2	53.1	52.1	49.4	47.4	45.8	46.3
Any Illicit Drug
Other Than Marijuana
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	26.2	25.4	26.0	27.1	28.2	30.4	34.0	30.1	28.4	28.0	27.4
Marijuana/Hashish
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	40.0	44.5	47.6	50.2	50.8	48.8	46.1	44.3	42.3	40.0	40.6
Inhalants
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	-	3.0	3.7	4.1	5.4	4.6	4.1	4.5	4.3	5.1	5.7
LSD
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	7.2	6.4	5.5	6.3	6.6	6.5	6.5	6.1	5.4	4.7	4.4
MDMA (Ecstasy)
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Cocaine
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	5.6	6.0	7.2	9.0	12.0	12.3	12.4	11.5	11.4	11.6	13.1
Crack Cocaine
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
NOTE: See Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman (2000) for more specific details about measures.
a Use of "any illicit drugs" includes any use of marijuana, hallucinogens, cocaine, or heroin, or any non-medical use of other opiates, amphetamines, barbiturates, or tranquilizers.

in 1992. Its lifetime prevalence reached a peak of 5.4 percent among the high school class of 1987 but declined to 2.6 percent by 1992. Use of crack cocaine increased during the 1990s, reaching a lifetime prevalence of 4.6 percent in 1999, and an annual prevalence of 2.7 percent. These figures are still below the peak levels reached in the mid 1980s.

Similar trends were observed among eighth and tenth graders in the 1990s, though at lower absolute levels.

Although not necessarily illicit drugs, inhalants are sometimes used illicitly for the purpose of getting high. This particular behavior is generally more often seen among younger students rather than among high school seniors. In 1999, for example,

last twelve months)
1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
-	-	-	-	-	11.3	12.9	15.1	18.5	21.4	23.6	22.1	21.0	20.5
-	-	-	-	-	21.4	20.4	24.7	30.0	33.3	37.5	38.5	35.0	35.9
44.3	41.7	38.5	35.4	32.5	29.4	27.1	31.0	35.8	39.0	40.2	42.4	41.4	42.1
-	-	-	-	-	8.4	9.3	10.4	11.3	12.6	13.1	11.8	11.0	10.5
-	-	-	-	-	12.2	12.3	13.9	15.2	17.5	18.4	18.2	16.6	16.7
25.9	24.1	21.1	20.0	17.9	16.2	14.9	17.1	18.0	19.4	19.8	20.7	20.2	20.7
-	-	-	-	-	6.2	7.2	9.2	13.0	15.8	18.3	17.7	16.9	16.5
-	-	-	-	-	16.5	15.2	19.2	25.2	28.7	33.6	34.8	31.1	32.1
38.8	36.3	33.1	29.6	27.0	23.9	21.9	26.0	30.7	34.7	35.8	38.5	37.5	37.8
-	-	-	-	-	9.0	9.5	11.0	11.7	12.8	12.2	11.8	11.1	10.3
-	-	-	-	-	7.1	7.5	8.4	9.1	9.6	9.5	8.7	8.0	7.2
6.1	6.9	6.5	5.9	6.9	6.6	6.2	7.0	7.7	8.0	7.6	6.7	6.2	5.6
-	-	-	-	-	1.7	2.1	2.3	2.4	3.2	3.5	3.2	2.8	2.4
-	-	-	-	-	3.7	4.0	4.2	5.2	6.5	6.9	6.7	5.9	6.0
4.5	5.2	4.8	4.9	5.4	5.2	5.6	6.8	6.9	8.4	8.8	8.4	7.6	8.1
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.3	2.3	1.8	1.7
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4.6	3.9	3.3	4.4
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4.6	4.0	3.6	5.6
-	-	-	-	-	1.1	1.5	1.7	2.1	2.6	3.0	2.8	3.1	2.7
-	-	-	-	-	2.2	1.9	2.1	2.8	3.5	4.2	4.7	4.7	4.9
12.7	10.3	7.9	6.5	5.3	3.5	3.1	3.3	3.6	4.0	4.9	5.5	5.7	6.2
-	-	-	-	-	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.7	2.1	1.8
-	-	-	-	-	0.9	0.9	1.1	1.4	1.8	2.1	2.2	2.5	2.4
4.1	3.9	3.1	3.1	1.9	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.9	2.1	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.7

5.6 percent of twelfth graders reported using inhalants to get high at least once in the past twelve months, compared to 7.2 percent of tenth graders, and 10.3 percent of eighth graders.

The longer term trend in the use of inhalants was slightly upward from its lowest level of 3.0 percent in 1976 (when it was first assessed), to a peak level of 8.0 percent in 1995 (before declining to 5.6% in 1999). Thus, the use of this class of substance, unlike the use of illicit drugs in general, did not show the general decline from 1980 to 1992. Among eighth and tenth graders, annual use levels are not very different between 1991 and 1999: for eighth graders the respective values were 9 percent and 10.3 percent, and for tenth graders they were 7.1 percent and 7.2 percent.

(Percent who used in
	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985
Heroin
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	1.0	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.6
Other Narcotics
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	5.7	5.7	6.4	6.0	6.2	6.3	5.9	5.3	5.1	5.2	5.9
Amphetamines b
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	16.2	15.8	16.3	17.1	18.3	20.8	26.0	20.3	17.9	17.7	15.8
Barbiturates
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	10.7	9.6	9.3	8.1	7.5	6.8	6.6	5.5	5.2	4.9	4.6
Tranquilizers
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	10.6	10.3	10.8	9.9	9.6	8.7	8.0	7.0	6.9	6.1	6.1
Alcohol c Any use
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	84.8	85.7	87.0	87.7	88.1	87.9	87.0	86.8	87.3	86.0	85.6
NOTE: See Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman (2000) for more specific details about measures.
b In 1982, the question about amphetamine use was revised; the prevalence rate declined as a result.
c In 1993, the question about alcohol use was revised; the prevalence rate declined as a result.

Hallucinogens are the other major class of illicit (or illicitly used) substances that did not evidence declines in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. LSD (lysergic acid diethylamide) in particular is a very significant exception; its use hardly changed among high school seniors, remaining at an annual prevalence of about 5 percent from 1987 to 1991 after a period of some decline. Like marijuana however, there was an increase in the 1990s, reaching 8.8 percent in 1996, the highest value ever recorded. (The lowest recorded value was 4.4 percent in 1985). By 1999, use had declined only slightly, to 8.1 percent.

Very similar patterns of change were evident among eighth and tenth graders in the 1990s, albeit at lower levels.

Substances that generally showed declines during the period from the 1970s to the early 1990s include heroin, opiates other than heroin, amphetamines, barbiturates, and tranquilizers. All of these substances also showed an increase during the mid-1990s.

Thus, five classes of illicitly used drugs had a particularly important impact on appreciable proportions of young Americans: Marijuana, cocaine, amphetamines, LSD, and inhalants. In 1999, they showed annual prevalence rates among high school seniors of 38 percent, 6 percent, 10 percent, 8 percent, and 6 percent, respectively. Among eighth graders, the respective figures were 17 percent, 3 percent, 7 percent, 2 percent, and 10 percent.

In the late 1990s, some "club drugs" appeared on the drug scene. One in particular, MDMA, or

last twelve months)
1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
-	-	-	-	-	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.4
-	-	-	-	-	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.4	1.4	1.4
0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.6	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.0	1.1
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5.2	5.3	4.6	4.4	4.5	3.5	3.3	3.6	3.8	4.7	5.4	6.2	6.3	6.7
-	-	-	-	-	6.2	6.5	7.2	7.9	8.7	9.1	8.1	7.2	6.9
-	-	-	-	-	8.2	8.2	9.6	10.2	11.9	12.4	12.1	10.7	10.4
13.4	12.2	10.9	10.8	9.1	8.2	7.1	8.4	9.4	9.3	9.5	10.2	10.1	10.2
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4.2	3.6	3.2	3.3	3.4	3.4	2.8	3.4	4.1	4.7	4.9	5.1	5.5	5.8
-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.0	2.1	2.4	2.7	3.3	2.9	2.6	2.5
-	-	-	-	-	3.2	3.5	3.3	3.3	4.0	4.6	4.9	5.1	5.4
5.8	5.5	4.8	3.8	3.5	3.6	2.8	3.5	3.7	4.4	4.6	4.7	5.5	5.8
-	-	-	-	-	54.0	53.7	48.5	46.8	45.3	46.5	45.5	43.7	43.5
-	-	-	-	-	72.3	70.2	66.4	63.9	63.5	65.0	65.2	62.7	63.7
84.5	85.7	85.3	82.7	80.6	77.7	76.8	74.4	73.0	73.7	72.5	74.8	74.3	73.8

"ecstasy," has shown substantial increases, reaching 5.6 percent annual prevalence among seniors in 1999. The corresponding figures for eighth and tenth graders are 1.7 percent and 4.4 percent.

Alcohol and Tobacco.

The history of the use of the major licit drugs—alcohol and tobacco—is rather different than that of the use of most illicit drugs. One significant difference was the extent of the use of alcohol and tobacco. The daily use of cigarettes was far greater than the daily use of any other substance. In 1999, more than one in five (23%) high school seniors had smoked one or more cigarettes per day in the past thirty days. Even among eighth graders, one in twelve was a daily cigarette smoker (8%).

About one in thirty (3.4%) seniors had drunk alcohol daily or almost daily. All other drugs were used on a daily basis by 0.3 percent or less of seniors. Although the daily use of alcohol was relatively infrequent among high school seniors, episodic or periodic drinking was more frequent. In 1999, nearly one third (31%) of seniors reported they had had five or more drinks in a row at least once during the past two weeks. (Drinking five or more drinks "in a row" is likely enough to render the average teenager intoxicated.) This behavior showed some declines in the late 1980s and early 1990s. From 1975 through 1988, the figure for such drinking had been between 35 percent and 41 percent, or consistently more than one in three high school seniors. Between 1988 and 1991, it declined to 30 percent, which represented an encouraging downward trend, although the absolute level remained impressively high; the trend in the 1990s

(Percent who used daily
	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985
Marijuana/Hashish
Any daily use
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	6.0	8.2	9.1	10.7	10.3	9.1	7.0	6.3	5.5	5.0	4.9
Alcohol a
Any daily use
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	5.7	5.6	6.1	5.7	6.9	6.0	6.0	5.7	5.5	4.8	5.0
5+ drinks in a row
in last 2 weeks
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	36.8	37.1	39.4	40.3	41.2	41.2	41.4	40.5	40.8	38.7	36.7
Cigarettes
Any daily use
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	26.9	28.8	28.8	27.5	25.4	21.3	20.3	21.1	21.2	18.7	19.5
1/2 pack+/day
8th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10th Grade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12th Grade	17.9	19.2	19.4	18.8	16.5	14.3	13.5	14.2	13.8	12.3	12.5
NOTE: See Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman (2000) for more specific details about measures.
a In 1993, the question about alcohol use was revised slightly.

was not so encouraging, with the level in 1999 slightly higher, at 31 percent.

The trends in the 1990s for eighth and tenth graders are also not encouraging: 1999 levels of heavy drinking are slightly higher than they were in 1991. For example, 23 percent of 1991 tenth graders reported having had five or more drinks in a row in the past two weeks, compared to 26 percent of 1999 tenth graders.

Among seniors, daily use of cigarettes peaked in 1977, when 29 percent of high school seniors smoked daily. By 1992, this had declined to 17 percent, but most of the decline had occurred by 1981, when the figure stood at 20 percent. Between 1992 and 1999, the figure increased substantially, to 23 percent. A measure of heavier smoking, the percent of high school seniors who smoked a half pack or more of cigarettes per day, showed a similar trend; it peaked in 1977 at 19 percent, declined to 14 percent by 1981, was down to 10 percent in 1992, but was back to 13 percent in 1999. Thus, although the 1980s showed some declines in cigarette smoking among young Americans, these declines were far more modest than one might have expected. Given the large increases in antismoking legislation, restrictions as to where smoking is allowed, and the general spread of antismoking attitudes, the declines were surprisingly small, and have eroded some in the 1990s.

The upward trend in cigarette use during the 1990s was strikingly present among eighth and tenth graders. Monthly use increased among both grades by about 50 percent from 1991 to 1996 (from 14 percent to 21 percent among eighth graders, and from 21 percent to 30 percent among tenth graders), before moderating slightly after that.

in last thirty days)
1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
-	-	-	-	-	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	1.5	1.1	1.1	1.4
-	-	-	-	-	0.8	0.8	1.0	2.2	2.8	3.5	3.7	3.6	3.8
4.0	3.3	2.7	2.9	2.2	2.0	1.9	2.4	3.6	4.6	4.9	5.8	5.6	6.0
-	-	-	-	-	0.5	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.9	1.0
-	-	-	-	-	1.3	1.2	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.9	1.9
4.8	4.8	4.2	4.2	3.7	3.6	3.4	3.0	2.9	3.5	3.7	3.9	3.9	3.4
-	-	-	-	-	12.9	13.4	13.5	14.5	14.5	15.6	14.5	13.7	15.2
-	-	-	-	-	22.9	21.1	23.0	23.6	24.0	24.8	25.1	24.3	25.6
36.8	37.5	34.7	33.0	32.2	29.8	27.9	27.5	28.2	29.8	30.2	31.3	31.5	30.8
-	-	-	-	-	7.2	7.0	8.3	8.8	9.3	10.4	9.0	8.8	8.1
-	-	-	-	-	12.6	12.3	14.2	14.6	16.3	18.3	18.0	15.8	15.9
18.7	18.7	18.1	18.9	19.1	18.5	17.2	19.0	19.4	21.6	22.2	24.6	22.4	23.1
-	-	-	-	-	3.1	2.9	3.5	3.6	3.4	4.3	3.5	3.6	3.3
-	-	-	-	-	6.5	6.0	7.0	7.6	8.3	9.4	8.6	7.9	7.6
11.4	11.4	10.6	11.2	11.3	10.7	10.0	10.9	11.2	12.4	13.0	14.3	12.6	13.2

DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES

Drug use among several demographic groups is monitored in the surveys, including by gender, four-year college plans, parental education (an indicator of socioeconomic status), geographical region, population density, and racial or ethnic identification.

Gender.

By senior year, male adolescents are more likely than female adolescents to use most illicit drugs, and the differences tend to be largest at the higher frequency levels. In 1999, for example, 8 percent of male high school seniors reported that they were using marijuana daily, versus 4 percent of female seniors. For many specific substances, there is little gender difference in use among eighth and tenth graders. Indeed, female eighth graders have slightly higher rates of annual use than males for inhalants, amphetamines, and tranquilizers.

There are large gender differences in the prevalence of occasions of heavy drinking among high school seniors (38 percent for male adolescents versus 24 percent for female adolescents in 1999); thus, as with heavy use of illicit drugs, heavy use of alcohol is more likely among male adolescents than it is among female adolescents. This gender difference is somewhat smaller than the one obtained in 1975, when the figures were 49 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The narrowing of the difference is primarily attributable to the greater decrease in heavy drinking among male adolescents than among female adolescents. The current differences are similar, though smaller, among the younger students. Among 1999 eighth graders, 16 percent of boys reported heaving drinking compared to 14 percent of girls; the corresponding figures for tenth graders were 30 percent and 22 percent.

In general, there is not much difference between male and female students in cigarette use. As with most drugs, the greater difference is seen among older, heavy smokers, but even so the difference is rather small: In 1999, 15 percent of male seniors reported smoking at the rate of a half pack or more per day, versus 12 percent of female seniors.

College-Bound versus Non-College-Bound.

Non-college-bound students are more likely than college-bound students to use any of the licit or illicit drugs. More frequent use of the drug tends to show greater differences. For example, 6 percent of non-college-bound eighth graders report smoking marijuana daily, compared to 1 percent of the college-bound; corresponding figures for tenth and twelfth graders are 10 percent versus 3 percent, and 9 percent versus 5 percent, respectively. Striking differences show up between college-bound and non-college-bound students in cigarette smoking rates. For example, smoking a half pack or more a day is more than six times more prevalent among the non-college-bound 1999 eighth graders than among the college-bound (13% versus 2%). Among seniors, half a pack or more smoking is more than twice as prevalent among the college-bound, 23 percent versus 10 percent. (The greater ratio in the younger students is likely due to the presence of the eventual dropouts in the eighth and tenth grades, because dropouts tend to have higher rates of smoking than nondropouts.) Non-college-bound students are also more likely than their college-bound counterparts to report having had five or more drinks in a row in the past two weeks (39 percent versus 24 percent among tenth graders, for example).

Parental Education.

Among high school seniors there is (perhaps surprisingly) rather little association between parental education and use of illicit drugs. There is somewhat more of an association among the lower grades, particularly among eighth graders, with the lowest level or lower two levels having somewhat higher use rates than the others.

Geographical Region.

Overall, use of illicit drugs does not vary dramatically by region. As of 1999, the annual use of any illicit drug was (slightly) lowest in the South among tenth and twelfth graders, but in the Northeast among eighth graders.

Both the South and the West tend to exhibit slightly lower rates of alcohol use than the Northeast and the North Central states. For example, in 1999 the prevalence of heavy-drinking occasions (that is, five or more drinks in a row on at least one occasion in the past two weeks) among the seniors was 34 percent and 32 percent in the Northeast and North Central states, respectively, compared with 30 percent and 29 percent in the South and the West. Cigarette smoking tends to be lowest in the West; for example, among 1999 seniors, smoking daily was 23 percent in the Northeast, 26 percent in the North Central, 24 percent in the South, and 17 percent in the West.

Population Density.

As of 1999, the differences in high school seniors' use of illicit drugs by population density are quite small. This lack of large differences reflects the fact that illicit-drug use has spread widely throughout the nation. One substance that has shown some significant difference by population density over time is the use of cocaine. The substantial increase in cocaine use in the late 1970s, and the continuing high levels of use until the mid-1980s, was primarily an urban phenomenon. The annual prevalence rates for cocaine were nearly twice as high among high school seniors in the large standard metropolitan statistical areas as they were for seniors in the more sparsely populated areas. Cigarette use varies somewhat by population density. Among eighth graders, daily use in 1999 was at 13 percent in non-metropolitan areas, compared to 5 percent in the largest metropolitan areas, and 7 percent in other metropolitan areas.

Racial or Ethnic Identification.

It is difficult to make definitive statements about even the larger minority groups such as African Americans and Hispanics, because of the relatively small numbers who participate in the surveys; it is virtually impossible to make definitive statements about other minority groups. Even Hispanics, who constitute a large segment of the population in many areas, often cannot be accurately represented because there are many important subgroups among the several Hispanic groups (e.g., Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, and Latin American, among others). Nevertheless, certain findings appear to be reliable.

Among high school seniors, African-American students report less use of virtually all substances than do white or Hispanic students. Generally, African-American students in eighth and tenth grades also report less use of most substances, although marijuana is an exception in the eighth grade, where white students report less use.

By senior year, Hispanic students report higher rates of cocaine and crack cocaine than white or African American students. These differences are stronger among eighth and tenth graders. And, particularly among eighth graders, Hispanic students tend to show the highest rates of use for some substances, including marijuana, tranquilizers, and cigarettes. In other words, in eighth grade, before most dropping out of school occurs, Hispanic students are relatively high in use of substances, while white students tend to have higher rates by twelfth grade. Very likely, the higher rates of dropping out of school observed among Hispanic adolescents (U.S. Dept. of Education, 1992) account for the shift in differences.

Some of these differences could be due to differential reporting biases, but J. M. Wallace and J. G. Bachman (1993) argue that this is unlikely to be an important part of the explanation.

SUMMARY

Between 1975 and 1992, appreciable declines were found in the use of a number of illicit drugs among high school seniors, but not in all drugs. LSD and inhalants were the notable exceptions. Moreover, some relatively slight declines were seen in alcohol use and even smaller declines in cigarette use. This picture of general improvement abruptly changed, with substantial increases seen from 1992 to 1997. The increases were evident not only among seniors, but also among eighth and tenth graders as well, with proportional changes being greater among the younger students. The situation moderated slightly, or changed rather little between 1997 and 1999, at which time drug use remained at high levels among American youth. Some items of interest are:

As of 1999, about 55 percent of young Americans had tried an illicit drug by the time they had neared the end of their last year of high school; this proportion included about 29 percent who had tried some illicit drug other than marijuana. About 28 percent of young Americans had tried an illicit drug before they finished eighth grade, including 16 percent who had tried some illicit drug other than marijuana.

Marijuana had been tried by 50 percent of seniors, 41 percent of tenth graders, and 22 percent of eighth graders.

One in ten (10%) twelfth graders had tried cocaine, and about one in every twenty-two (4.6%) had tried crack cocaine.

A significant number of high school seniors in 1999 smoked marijuana daily (6%).

Almost a third (31%) of high school seniors in 1999 had had five or more drinks in a row at least once in the prior two weeks.

More than a third (35%) of seniors had smoked cigarettes in the month prior to the survey, and 23 percent smoked daily. More than a sixth (18%) of eighth graders had smoked cigarettes in the month prior to the survey, and 8 percent already smoked daily.

In addition to providing basic epidemiologic information on prevalences, trends, and demographic differences, the Monitoring the Future study also contribute information on the reasons for the trends and differences. The study's demonstration that attitudes and beliefs affect drug-use trends (especially in the case of marijuana and cocaine) is particularly important (Bachman, Johnston, & O'Malley, 1998; Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman, 2000). By virtue of its cohort-sequential design, the study has been able to distinguish among the several possible types of competing changes associated with trends in use-specifically, age, period, and cohort (or birth group) effects (O'Malley, Bachman, & Johnston, 1988). In addition, the study has been able to provide important data with which researchers could evaluate the effects of changes in the laws dealing with marijuana (Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman, 1981) and alcohol (O'Malley & Wagenaar, 1991). All of these contributions have been vital in the continuing debates about policy regarding the use of licit and illicit drugs.

PATRICK M. O'MALLEY