America Beyond 2001

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America Beyond 2001 | Introduction

“The fundamental uncertainties of our time will shape the context for many of our business and personal decisions. Will there be war or peace? Prosperity or depression? An atmosphere of freedom or one of restraint?”

Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, 1991

As the year 2000 approaches, there is a natural surge of interest among Americans about the future. Many are asking the following questions: Where is the nation headed? Where should it be headed? Will we like it when we get there?

Although not widely recognized, the purpose of futures research is not to predict the future, but to use foresight about possible, probable, preferable, and feared futures in order to make better decisions in the present. Claims of being able to predict the future with precision should be viewed with great skepticism. The approach of considering opposing viewpoints, then, is an appropriate one to follow when contemplating alternative futures.

There is no consensus about either the likely or the desirable future. To a great extent, what one anticipates depends on personal opinion, which may vary according to one’s ideology, profession, region, religion, and culture. Through their opinions, many people concerned with the future hope to influence exactly what type of future unfolds.

There are four fairly distinct schools of thought about the future: Positive Extrapolist/Technological Enthusiast, Negative Extrapolist/Technological Alarmist, Visionary/Technocultural Transformationist, and Client-Oriented. Each school answers the following questions in a distinct way:

• What types of future are most likely?

• Which are most desirable?

• Which are most threatening?

• What are the best ways to ensure the desired—and prevent the feared—future?

1. Positive Extrapolist/Technological Enthusiast. Proponents of this viewpoint see no major roadblocks to progress in America’s future. They believe that technology will provide solutions to natural resource limits and population pressures and spur economic growth. Futurists who embrace this viewpoint include Gerald K. O’Neill, author of 2081: A Hopeful View of the Human Future, who writes, “The human race stands now on the threshold of a new frontier whose richness is a thousand times greater than that of the new western world of five hundred years ago.” Positive Extrapolists anticipate unlimited human potential.

2. Negative Extrapolist/Technological Alarmist. Those who espouse this view believe that the economic growth and technological advancement that marked America’s past will prove unsustainable in the future. They conclude that the exponential growth in “ecological load” (essentially population multiplied by per capita consumption) and the impact of technology are causing systemic problems faster than solutions can be found. Negative Extrapolists thus see decreasing potential for long-term economic and technological progress. According to Dennis Meadows and Donella Meadows, coauthors of Limits to Growth and Beyond the Limits, “If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached within the next one hundred years.”

3. Visionary/Technocultural Transformationist. Holders of this viewpoint believe that American society is more or less “stuck” in a limited set of attitudes, premises, policies, and behaviors (that is, the prevailing “paradigm” of society). By revisioning these, they think, it should be possible to see how to evolve into a new paradigm that would be both sustainable and humane. Different members of this group emphasize environmental, social, or spiritual factors as the place to start—each having his or her own views regarding “appropriate” technology for cultural transformation. In Global Mind Change, author Willis Harman describes this transition: “Society will, only a few generations from now, be as different from modern industrial society as that is from society of the middle ages.”

4. Client-Oriented. These futurists, unlike the others, avoid taking an ideological position regarding America’s future. Instead, they serve the demands of clients—primarily corporations and small companies—by satisfying their questions and interests. In What Futurists Believe, Joseph Coates and Jennifer Jarrett explain how practicing futurists often blend their views with those of clients. The futurist is valuable to the client, according to Coates and Jarrett, because in contrast to the perspective of the client, “the generally longer-range view of the futurist may be particularly rich and helpful on scientific and technological developments.”

Of course, these four schools overlap; many futurists can place themselves in more than just one category. Whether the future will be better or worse, these experts agree that it will be extensively different from the present or recent past. Opinions from the four schools are reflected in America Beyond 2001: Opposing Viewpoints in the following chapters: The Social Fabric of America: What Is Its Future? Technological Change: How Fast and to What End? What Will Become of America’s Economy? The Ecological Environment: Sustainable or Not? and America’s Political Status: What Does the Future Hold? This anthology examines the myriad forces and opinions shaping the future of America.

Navigate

1. Introduction
2. Chapter 1
   1. Chapter 1 Preface
   2. Technology Will Strengthen the Traditional Family
   3. The Traditional Family Will Be Less Prevalent
   4. A Vision of Revitalized Education
   5. A Vision of Declining Education
   6. Immigrants Will Strengthen America’s Future
   7. Immigrants Will Weaken America’s Future
   8. The Aging of America: Alternative Visions
   9. Ethics for the Twenty-First Century
3. Chapter 2
   1. Chapter 2 Preface
   2. Sustainable Development Is Possible
   3. Sustainable Development Is Unlikely
   4. The Future Looks Bright for Alternative Fuels
   5. The Future Looks Dim for Alternative Fuels
   6. Greenhouse America: A Twenty-First- Century “Wild Card”
   7. Normal Weather: A Twenty-First- Century Trend
4. Chapter 3
   1. Chapter 3 Preface
   2. The Global Economy Is Real
   3. The Global Economy Is Largely Myth
   4. America Needs an Industrial Policy
   5. America Does Not Need an Industrial Policy
   6. America’s Economy May Become Intensely Regulated
   7. Economic Scenarios: From Boom to Collapse
   8. Entitlement Programs Are Sustainable
   9. Entitlement Programs Are Not Sustainable
5. Chapter 4
   1. Chapter 4 Preface
   2. America Is Becoming a Third World Country
   3. America Is Not Becoming a Third World Country
   4. From Cold War to American Renaissance
   5. From Cold War to Cold Peace
   6. The Coming of the Information Revolution
   7. The Potential Military Takeover of America
6. Chapter 5
   1. Chapter 5 Preface
   2. Technology Can Secure America’s Future
   3. Technology Can Be Damaging
   4. Information Technology Is Revolutionary
   5. Information Technology Is Not Revolutionary
   6. Technology Rapidly Changes Society
   7. Technology Slowly Changes Society
   8. Information Technology Workers, 2010
   9. Information Technology Criminals, 2010
7. Organizations to Contact
8. Bibliography
9. Copyright

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